In the last 30 years, the US workforce has grown by 43%, and US manufacturing jobs are down by 30%.
With just that information alone, what could one conclude? That other countries have unfairly stolen our jobs? That we should employ protectionist policies to stop imports?
Ok, well, what if we add this information – US unemployment is down from 30 years ago.
What do you conclude now? Hmmm…let’s see. If manufacturing jobs are down, but overall employment is not, then it’s just that the kinds of jobs are changing. It’s the only thng one can conclude.
Now let’s add this information – US manufacturing OUTPUT has doubled in the last 30 years. What do you think now? Hmmm…If manufacturing jobs are down 30%, and output has doubled….there must be something going on in manufacturing to make output go up without more people needed on assembly lines. Yes. Innovation and Technology has improved all areas of our lives. (Remember when you needed a dime and had to find a pay phone?)
Things are always changing. We just have to keep up so we aren’t left behind.
It’s best if we don’t draw conclusions with partial information on any subject.
You can calculate manufacturing productivity by the number of full time emeployees it talks to make one million dollars of product. In 1980 it took 25 people to manufacture one million dollars of product. In 2010 the last year I’ve seen a number for it took 6.5 people to manufacture one million dollars . The difference is technology.
I was told a few years back by a very wealthy MBA instructor ( and our accountant ) when we had the “oil shortage ” and gas was over $4.00 a gallon, not to worry about running out of gas because someone will come up with a way for cars not to use any or use a lot less.
Cool stream of thinking. The key is to have an idea on how to change to remain in the vanguard of your industry. One of the things I like the most about being in the network is that collectively, we do think that way. Sometimes we get good ideas from Dr Energy Saver, other times it is other dealers. The key, as we have been talking to other people in the Home Performance Business locally, is that we are in the front of the thought curve, and adapting to stay there.
Keep thinking and writing Larry!
With AI the replacement curve is exponential and we are seeing job replacement in legal, medical, and communications to name a few. We will be asking whether % employment is a meaningful metric. How do we measure success as a society and distribute wealth if productivity grows with less and less need for human intervention?
Incomplete data yields incomplete results.